i-lestari: lmpak kepada ekonomi

i-lestari: lmpak kepada ekonomi

Kerajaan baru-baru ini membenarkan pengeluaran akaun 2 sebanyak RM500 sebulan, untuk selama 12 bulan, bagi menampung perbelanjaan harian akibat daripada covid19.

Website KWSP menunjukkan:

✅Jumlah pencarum ialah seramai 14,587,811 dan pencarum aktif ialah seramai 7,626, 262. So kita ambil ahli yang aktif sahaja la..

✅Pengeluaran i-lestari selama setahun ialah RM6000 (500 x 12).

Impak kepada ekonomi?

👍Liquidity inject dalam ekonomi ialah 7,626,262 x 6000 = 45,757,572,000 (45.76b)

👍Jika money multiplier 5, so ekonomi akan berkembang sebanyak RM228,787,860,000 (228b)

Banyakkan?

Ayuh rakyat Malaysia..mari kita berbelanja secara berhemah..

CASH IS KING: WHO IS THE QUEEN?

CASH IS KING: WHO IS THE QUEEN?

There are a lot of DMs received by me, asking my opinion either they should opted in or opted out from the recently announced automatic moratorium exercise by BNM

CASH IS KING dear readers...

I am in the opinion that we should joint the bandwagon given the followings:

a) The mora does not affect your CCRIS. BNM allow no tagging in CCRIS due to this moratorium exercise.

b) The mora allow you to accumulate short term fund and assist building-up your 6 months emergency fund. This improve your confident level in managing your personal finance. Confident is important, so that decision can be made cohesively. I am planning to go for holiday with that money, to revive our domestic economy.

c) 6 months fund may be used to settle the high-interest paid facility such as credit card, personal loan or HP, simultaneously improving your cash flow starting Oct2020.

CASH IS KING, but the QUEEN is you dear..

#CashIsKing

WHAT WAIT FOR US AHEAD?

WHAT WAIT FOR US AHEAD?

It is a mega moratorium exercise starting from 01/04/2020 until 30/09/2020 granted to all eligible Malaysian who has borrowing with the FI. Unprecedented and a mega-scale effort to address the threat carry by Covid-19.

Would it turn to be a mega default afterwards?

Any thought?

CETERIS PARIBUS: ANDAIKAN...

CETERIS PARIBUS: ANDAIKAN...

✅Kerajaan suntik RM250B dalam ekonomi.

Andaikan...Money multiplier = 5

✅Expected ekonomi expansion = RM1.25T (250B x 5)

Andaikan...GST 6% still ada..

✅Hasil cukai yang bakal kerajaan kutip = RM75B

Kesimpulan:
🏷GST dah takda.
🏷So, 75B tu pun tak da.
🏷Ni semua andaian belaka.

#Andaikan
#CeterisParibus

LIQUIDITY TRAP: ARE WE?

Menda alah apa pulak la liquidity trap ni?

Benda alah ni merupakan mimpi ngeri untuk policy marker sebenarnya. Depa turunkan OPR dan SRR, but ekonomi buat derkkk je...sebaliknya, ekonomi makin perlahan pulak.

Mana pergi duit yang di'inject' dalam ekonomi yang sepatutnya merangsang ekonomi?

Jawapannya ialah duit yang ada rakyat simpan dan tidak berbelanja..

ARE WE ON THIS SITUATION?

Mari lihat fakta yang kita ada.

Sequence reduction of OPR since Y2019:
a) 07/5/2019 OPR reduce from 3.25 to 3.00
b) 22/01/2020 OPR reduce from 3.00 to 2.75
c) 03/03/2020 OPR reduce from 2.75 to 2.50

Sequence reduction of SRR since Y2019
a) 16/11/2019 SRR reduce from 3.5 to 3.0
b) 20/03/2020 SRR reduce from 3.0 to 2.0

But lets have a look on our GDP growth since Y2019
Quarter 1 Y19 : growth rate 1.1%
Quarter 2 Y19 : growth rate 1.0%
Quarter 3 Y19 : growth rate 0.9%
Quarter 4 Y19 : growth rate 0.6%

Liquidity has been injected into the economy, but the growth rate is on decelerating rate. Rakyat tidak berbelanja dengan duit lebihan yang ada. Bunga-bunga liquidity trap tu dah ada.

So, apa penyelesaian terbaik? KERAJAAN la yang harus berbelanja dan memperbaiki semula sentiment rakyat untuk sama-sama berbelanja.

Moga perjalanan ekonomi kita akan lebih baik, InsyaAllah.

source : https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gdp-growth

Basic Economy Cycle and Interest Rate

Bila ekonomi menguncup, kadar interest cenderung untuk turun, supaya rakyat berbelanja.

Dan apabila rakyat berbelanja sehingga ekonomi berkembang pada tahap yang membimbangkan, kadar interest akan naik untuk cool down kan ekonomi.

The interest rate in Malaysia is closely related to OPR. Hence by now, all of us should be able to predict, the direction of OPR for the next 12 months based on current economy indicators which are GDP, Employment, Inflation and Wages.

Where are we heading guys?

Source: How Money Works

HOW MUCH DO WE LOST DUE TO MOVEMENT RESTRICT ORDER (PERINTAH KAWALAN PERGERAKAN) IN TERM OF ECONOMIC VALUE?

Ada yang bertanya pada saya, how Movement Restrict Order (MRO) for 14 days started from 18 to 31st March, effects our economy? Bila kita sebut ekonomi, matematik lagi mudah nak paham kan?

Berikut kiraan kasar saya yea..

1-Size GDP negara pada tahun 2019 ialah RM1.54T (RM1,540,764,000,000).

2-Andaikan tahun 2020, ekonomi berkembang pada aras 3%. Maka forecast GDP ialah RM1.58T (RM1,586,986,920,000).

3-Saiz ekonomi dalam sehari ialah RM4.34B (RM1.58T ÷ 365 = RM4,347,909,370)

4-MRO selama 14 hari. So, size kehilangan value added dalam ekonomi ialah RM60.87B (RM60,870,731,179) yang mana 14 x RM4.34B.

5-Dari segi percentage, kehilangan ini sebesar 3.83% dari jumlah ramalan GDP untuk tahun 2020 (RM60.87B÷RM1.58T)

6-Penurunan value added sebanyak RM60.87B, mampu memberi kesan negative sebanyak 0.95% kepada forecasted GDP tahun 2020. Nilai GDP tinggal RM1.526T.

7-Since kita forecast GDP berkembang pada aras 3% untuk tahun 2020, maka revised forecast GDP untuk tahun 2020 ialah 2.05% sahaja.

Banyak sangat kosong...takut salah titik perpuluhan..kalau salah, maafkan saya..

Dan ini kiraan straight to the point, banyak lagi faktor kena consider..

#ImpactMRO